Putt Odds
How often a putt drops at every length, from a model fitted to pro putting data.
What this answers
How likely are you to hole a putt of this length, and why?
- Pick a putt length, or type any length from 1 to 75 feet in the panel.
- Read the curve: the make chance at every length. Geometry shows the window the putt must start inside.
- Change your start-line and pace spreads; the Line and Pace tiles show which one costs more putts.
Reopen it any time with ? Guide
- Model, the published fit
- Published fit
- Line alone, pace alone
- MakeMakeThe chance of holing the putt: the Line chance times the Pace chance. The starting spreads are a published fit to pros’ putts, so the odds start as pros’ odds.
- 38.9%
- Makes about 1 in 2.6
- Model
- LineLineThe chance the putt starts inside the window, given your start-line spread.
- 45.3%
- Starts inside the window
- Model
- PacePaceThe chance the putt has the right speed: it would have stopped between the hole and 3 ft past. The stroke aims to roll 1 ft past.
- 86.1%
- Would roll 0–3 ft past
- Model
- WindowWindowHow far either side of the center line a putt can start and still drop. The longer the putt, the narrower the window.
- ±0.61°
- Start angles that drop
- Model
The charts show a 10 ft putt with the published fit. The controls need JavaScript.
Show the numbers as a table
| Putt length | 10 ft | Yours |
|---|---|---|
| Start-line spread (1 SD) | 1.02° | Published fit (Gelman 2019, from Broadie’s pro putting data) |
| Pace spread (1 SD) | 8.0% of the distance | Published fit (Gelman 2019, from Broadie’s pro putting data) |
| Make | 38.9% | Model |
| Start line inside the window | 45.3% | Model |
| Window | ±0.61° | Model: hole 4.25 in, ball 1.68 in |
| Pace 0–3 ft past | 86.1% | Model |
| Would stop short | 12.8% | Model |
| Would roll more than 3 ft past | 1.2% | Model |
Model and published fit: A. Gelman, “Model building and expansion for golf putting”, Stan case study (24 Sep 2019), fitted there to Mark Broadie’s pro putting data.
For your gear
The window is under a degree
A start line you can repeat
From 10 ft the ball must start within about 0.6° of the center to drop. A putter that suits your stroke makes that line easier to repeat.
Putter FinderA head you can aim
Choose the head shape you find easiest to aim, then check that its balance suits the way you move it.
Blade or mallet? Choosing a putterEyes over the line
Putter length changes your posture and where your eyes sit, which changes how the line looks to you.
How to choose putter lengthSlope and green speed
Putt Odds is a flat green. See how slope and speed bend the line, and where to aim, in the Green Reading Lab.
Green Reading Lab
Method
How it is calculated
Two errors decide a putt. The start line varies around the aim; the ball drops only if it starts inside the window the hole leaves for a 1.68 in ball. The pace varies in proportion to the length; the ball drops only if, with no hole, it would have rolled 0 to 3 ft past. The model is Andrew Gelman’s, from his case study “Model building and expansion for golf putting”, with the pace term by Mark Broadie.
Gelman fitted it to Broadie’s summary data from pro golfers, putts from under a foot to 75 ft: a start-line spread of 1.02° and a pace spread of 8%. With that fit the model is within 0.35 points of the data on average and 0.79 at worst, by our check. The starting odds are pros’.
The full method, the checks and the sources are on the Golf Lab methods page.