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Aim & Dispersion Planner

Set the hole and your spread. Move the aim and watch your chances on the target and in each hazard change.

How it works

What this answers

Where should you aim, given your spread and the hazards?

  1. Choose Tee shot or Approach. An approach needs your own sideways and distance spread, on the Pattern tab.
  2. Set the hole on the Hole tab: its distance, width, and the hazards left, right, short and long.
  3. Pick a goal, press Aim there, and read your chances in the tiles. Drag the aim to compare.

Reopen it any time with ? Guide

PublishedBroadie 2008, Table 1: direction SD 6.4° on long tee shots, scores 84–97

From above, in yards · drag the aim or use the arrow keys
  • On the fairway
  • In a hazard
  • Elsewhere
  • Aim
  • Best aim
Model
68%95%Fairway 45%Water 22%OB 11%
On the fairwayOn the fairwayThe share of simulated shots that finish on the target at this aim. The line below is the share that misses it without finding a hazard.
45%
Rough 21%
Model
In a hazardIn a hazardThe share of simulated shots that finish in any hazard at this aim, with each hazard’s share below.
33%
OB right 11% · Water left 22%
Model
Main missMain missWhere most of the shots that miss the target finish: left or right, or short or long, whichever leans more.
Even50%
Of the misses
Model
Best aimBest aimThe aim, to the yard, that best serves the goal chosen under Best aim for. Aim there moves your aim to it.
Center
220 yd out · 45% on the fairway
Model

The chart shows the starting tee shot with Broadie’s 70–83 scoring group. The controls need JavaScript.

Show the numbers as a table
ShotTee shot, fairway 30 yd wide, aimed 220 yd outStarting hole
OB right15 yd from the edgeStarting hole
Water left0 yd from the edgeStarting hole
Direction spread6.4° (1 SD)Broadie 2008, Table 1, scores 84–97
Sideways spread24.7 yd (1 SD)Model: 220 yd × tan(6.4°)
Distance spreadNot publishedBroadie 2008 gives none
AimCenter of the fairway, 220 yd outStarting aim
On the fairway45%Model
OB right11%Model
Water left22%Model
Rough21%Model
Best aim (most on the fairway)Center of the fairway, 220 yd outModel

Published spread: M. Broadie, “Assessing Golfer Performance Using Golfmetrics”, Science and Golf V: Proceedings of the 2008 World Scientific Congress of Golf, read Oct 14, 2026.

For your game and gear

The plan is only as good as its numbers

  • Measure your own spread

    Bring a launch monitor session into the Shot Pattern Lab and save each club’s spread to My Lab. It appears here as a pattern you can pick.

    Shot Pattern Lab

  • Know the distance to the edge

    The plan turns on a few yards: how far to the water, how deep the green is. A rangefinder gives you those numbers on the course.

    Rangefinder Finder

  • Wind and elevation move the pattern

    A crosswind shifts the whole pattern sideways. See how far, then add it here as your average miss.

    Conditions Lab

  • What a launch monitor can measure

    Spread numbers are only as good as the device and the session behind them.

    What a home launch monitor can and cannot tell you

Method

How it is calculated

Your shots spread around where you aim as a bell curve sideways and another along the line, with no link between the two. The planner hits 50,000 shots from a seeded generator, so the same setup always gives the same numbers, and counts where they finish. Each chance is within 0.9 of a point.

The published patterns are the direction spreads Mark Broadie measured on long tee shots in “Assessing Golfer Performance Using Golfmetrics” (2008), from 4.0° for PGA Tour players to 8.1° for golfers scoring 97 to 120. An angle becomes yards at your distance: 4° is 14 yd at 200 yd. The paper gives no distance spread, so short and long need yours.

The full method, the checks and the limits are on the Golf Lab methods page.